09/15/2026
Peak Season: Demand Profiles, Inventory Levels, and Reordering
Now that you know what you are selling and where you're selling it, you need to establish the specific demand for individual products throughout the peak season.
Key takeaways
- There are many areas that will influence consumer awareness of your products, but your marketing and promotional activities will be major drivers for demand.
- Your ability to meet consumer demand, the products you sell, and your profit margins center on very accurate demand planning and forecasting.
- The more robust your product demand and scenario modeling, the greater the availability of your products and the more efficiently your 3PL will function.
- Demand figures are what you provide to a 3PL so that they can establish correct inventory levels for every marketplace and channel to ensure maximum availability and consumer satisfaction.
- Understanding end-to-end lead times ensures you plan in appropriate lead times for the full product availability lifecycle, from initial supply and manufacture to last-mile delivery.
This is the second of four articles on planning and navigating peak season with your third-party logistics provider. Part 1 covered establishing what you will sell, where, and to whom. This article covers demand forecasting, inventory levels, and reordering. Part 3 covers managing operational logistics through the peak period. Part 4 covers maintaining relationships and reviewing performance.
Understand demand profiles, inventory levels, and reordering requirements for all products
Now that you know what you are selling and where you're selling it, you need to establish the specific demand for individual products throughout the peak season. That depends on the product map you built in Part 1, which lists every SKU against every marketplace and channel. You'll build on it through:
- Understanding the impact of marketing, sales, and promotional activities on product demand.
- Creating robust logistics forecasting to understand required inventory levels to meet consumer needs.
- Providing highly accurate and timely product demand information to your 3PL.
Establishing end-to-end cycle and lead times for reordering products and managing inventory.
1. Build marketing and promotional activities into your product demand forecasting
There are many areas that will influence consumer awareness of your products, but your marketing and promotional activities will be major drivers for demand. In this step, you'll get an awareness of what those activities will be and ensure they feed into your forecasting models.
The most important outputs from this step will feed into the next one, but it's still a useful reference point to ensure 3PLs can handle increased demand due to your marketing initiatives.
Understand the impact of marketing, sales, and promotional activities on product demand in peak periods.
When to start: 12 months out, then monthly reviews.
What to consider
- Create robust two-way communications channels with marketing and sales departments.
- Establish any promotional and advertising initiatives for new product launches or for existing products.
- Understand how promotional activities are likely to impact consumer demand for products.
- Forecast any increase in likely marketplace demand numbers in each marketplace and channel you operate in.
- Establish lead, development, and end-to-end order times to take account of increased demand and ensure adequate inventory levels.
- Areas to review include:
- Arrangements and promotions initiated internally by your business teams.
- Arrangements and promotions carried out by third parties, merchants, affiliates, and others.
- Marketing through traditional channels such as in-store, print, radio, and TV.
- Marketing through online channels such as PPC, affiliates, social media, and display advertising.
- Omnichannel promotions and demand.
- Upcoming forward orders from large consumers or merchants.
Upcoming sales deals.
Working with your 3PL
- Make your 3PL aware of the timing of major marketing and promotional activities to ensure they have the operational capacity for product distribution.
- Work with your 3PL to ensure rightsizing and capacity for promotional and marketing initiatives.
2. Refine product demand and logistics forecasting for an accurate understanding of required stock levels and capabilities
Your ability to meet consumer demand, the products you sell, and your profit margins center on very accurate demand planning and forecasting. The more robust your product demand and scenario modeling, the greater the availability of your products and the more efficiently your 3PL will function.
Create robust product forecasting outcomes and scenario planning to account for consumer demand trends.
When to start: six to nine months out, then monthly reviews.
What to consider
- Review the latest consumer behavior trends and how this is likely to impact on product demand.
- Gather together information from strategic planning, product launches, product improvements, marketing, and sales.
- Collect together market research reports and other data to predict likely consumer demand over the peak period.
- Collect together historic data such as previous sales figures and consumer demand to create a baseline.
- Feed in the likely impact of sales and promotional activities.
- Use all of the above as inputs to logistics forecasting.
- Generate multiple models and outputs based on different scenarios and demand profiles.
- Create baseline stock levels from the most likely models and outcomes.
- Continually review changes in demand forecasting as more information becomes available.
- Forecast likely marketplace demand numbers in each marketplace you operate in.
- Forecast likely sales channel demand numbers for each channel you sell through.
Understand likely inventory levels, lead times, and cycle times for every SKU across every marketplace and sales channel.
Working with your 3PL
- Talk to your 3PL to see if they already have logistics forecasting software. If they do, establish the inputs that they need to create realistic scenarios and predictions.
- Use logistics forecasting to understand what inventory levels are likely to be and ensure that your 3PL has enough capacity to handle inventory, throughput, and distribution.
- Create an active review and feedback cycle as you get closer to peak season to ensure up-to-date predicted stock levels.
Talk to GEODIS about how we can support your peak season. Get in touch with GEODIS.
3. Engage with your third-party logistics provider and share accurate and timely product demand figures
The output of all your previous work comes together here. These are the figures you provide to a 3PL so that they can establish correct inventory levels for every marketplace and channel to ensure maximum availability and consumer satisfaction.
Provide product demand figures and required inventory levels to your 3PL, split by marketplace and channel.
When to start: six to nine months out, then monthly reviews.
What to consider
- Consolidate product demand and required inventory levels together from your previous analyses and forecasts:
- Strategic drives for product launches, relaunches, product improvements, and continuing to sell existing products "as is."
- The types of products you will be selling over the peak period including individual SKUs, product ranges, and variations.
- The impact of marketing, sales, and promotional activities on product demand in peak periods.
- Product forecasting outcomes and scenario planning to account for consumer demand trends.
- Create finalized product demand figures for every SKU, split by marketplace and sales channel.
Establish expected inventory levels and availability to meet consumer demand during peak seasons for each marketplace and channel.
Working with your 3PL
- Provide likely product demand levels and inventory requirements during peak season split by marketplace and channel.
- Send likely new and existing product demand figures to your 3PL as soon as possible.
- Commit to updating product demand figures on a regular basis.
- Work with your 3PL to ensure rightsizing and capacity for new product launches.
- Ensure your 3PL has enough inventory space and logistics resources to serve each marketplace appropriately.
4. Understand the complete, end-to-end lead times between product ordering and availability
Once you've established detailed product demand figures, you'll need to work with your 3PL to understand how long it takes to order new products and have them available to consumers. This will ensure you plan in appropriate lead times for the full product availability lifecycle, from initial supply and manufacture to last-mile delivery.
Gain a deep understanding of end-to-end lead times from initial product orders through to availability in the relevant marketplace.
When to start: 12 months out, then monthly reviews.
What to consider
- Understand the range and variety of products that need to be available to consumers for peak season.
- Calculate the estimated lead times for each aspect of the supply chain, including sourcing, manufacture, local and international shipping, warehousing, and distribution.
- Factor in forecasting outcomes for likely inventory levels based on estimated throughput of goods and sales to consumers.
Establish how early orders need to be placed to ensure availability throughout peak season.
Working with your 3PL
- Work closely with your 3PL to provide regular, timely updates on order lead times and the progression of products through the supply chain.
- Ensure enough lead time with suppliers and manufacturers so you retain enough inventory to meet customer demand in the height of peak season.
- Ensure 3PL integration with suppliers and providers across your supply chain for the supply, manufacture, and distribution of every SKU.
- Highlight likely changes to demand levels so that your 3PL can ensure they have enough capacity and resources to handle changes in stock levels and demand.
Previously in this series: Part 1, establishing your product offerings and requirements for peak season.
Next in this series: Part 3, managing operational logistics through peak season, covering how responsibilities split between you and your 3PL, the success factors to measure, and how to initiate and run the season itself.